If you've made it all the way to this third and final article in our write up on portable gaming's second great war you will certainly have noticed that while I am not at all short on opinions I haven't made any final conclusions on the outcome. That I saved for today, but before I stick my foot in my mouth I want to play a game with you the reader. I'm going to put forth 3 scenarios, one for each of the systems currently in play whereby it wins this war, and I want you to read them all and see which seems most likely to you. Deal? Good. Play ball!
Scenario 1 - When Pigs Fly - An N-Gage Story
The N-Gage now moving steady at 100,000+ units a month continues its climb up from the 2003 fiasco and by E3 2005 has moved over 2 million units. The PSP on the other hand despite it's seemingly strong start has become the system everyone loves to hate. In a backlash reaction to the enormous pre-release hype the press and eventually gamers have started heaping their frustrations on Sony's bid at portable gaming starting first with a wave of "that's it" followed quickly with heaping helpings of "you better be joking". Sony manages an underachiever's 3 million unit sales and looks to be in danger. The DS continues its climb leading right into E3 2005 with a total system sales count of 5 million units despite competition and a lack of killer apps.
E3 2005 as it often does brings some serious surprises. Nokia announce several exciting new games and developers, and then turn some heads unveiling their new revision of the N-Gage line, the N-Gage Px. This redesigned QD builds in a 2 megapixel camera and will retail alongside the QD at just 50 USD more. The press is impressed and general responses are very positive. Nintendo also shocks audiences with the unveiling of their surprise Game Boy successor the Game Boy Revolution for release in November of 2005 worldwide. It is in fact the Game Cube in a portable. The DS suddenly is seen for the delaying tactic it was to buy time against the PSP and the fallout is hell for both Nintendo portables. Sony also shows at E3 with more of their ho-hum PS2 ports and under-impresses gamers with the lack of compelling content to match their premium pricing.
Through the rest of 2005 Nokia continues it's climb at an accelerated 250,000+ units per month ending the year at 4.25 million units. Sony continues their unimpressive sluggish semi-horizontal movement and makes only 4.1 million units by the calendar year of 2006. Nintendo losses bad after their loyalty damaging announcement and developers bail on the DS causing it's spiraling fall. The GBR makes it to market and racks up a below expectations 800,000 units. The redistributed developers favor heavily the N-Gage in current systems and the Gizmondo for future ones since they were burned by PSP and DS development. By the middle of 2006 the N-Gage line has continued it's climb to 6 million units, the PSP has been cancelled and the GBE has achieved 4 million units. The Gizmondo finally launched worldwide at a whopping 350 USD fails miserably achieving only 700,000 sales.
Scenario 2 - Nintendo Now and Forever
Nintendo being the leader out of the gate maintains it's front position all the way into E3 with a healthy 8 million worldwide unit sales. Sony comes in a distant second with 4 million units as of E3 and Nokia sadly struggles on for a still distant 2 million units and third place.
E3 as expected sees lots of announcements the most surprising of which is the arrival of the Gizmondo with good developer support, good battery life, and reasonable 200 USD price point. The post-E3 buzz is dominated by talk of the Gizmondo and it gets poised for a strong Summer release.
Sony in response to the Giz drops their price another 50 USD and is now taking a 250 USD per sale hit for the PSP. Nintendo also responds with a price drop putting the DS at 99 USD, their cost. Sales see a lot of swelling on the Nintendo side pushing it to just under 10 million units but the PSP remains sluggish as the Giz appears to be all the PSP has to offer with better portability. Nokia labors on and gets to 3.4 million despite neigh-sayers and starts to become a clear contender because of it's niche market.
Christmas 2005 sees the first casualty of the war. Sony sales plummet after the Giz hits shelves worldwide and costs are too high for Sony to maintain the product. Deciding to focus on the home market where they have done better Sony pulls the plug on the PSP in late September. The Giz and N-Gage lines benefit greatly with an influx of developer interest and both fight for second place with sales in the neighborhood of 10 million units. The DS however is the clear winner now having amassed 18 million sales and put great distance between it and the competition.
Scenario 3 - Sony Repeats Itself
Despite all the best efforts of Nintendo and Nokia the interest in Sony's portable is unstoppable. From day one of the US launch demand outstrips supply and by E3 the PSP has moved 7 million units worldwide. The DS not totally down and out has also moved forward to a close 6.5 million units. They are neck and neck and Nokia is trailing far behind with 2 million sales.
E3 comes with some major announcements by the big players. The Giz still absent becomes a joke at the show and Nokia shows promise with an N-Gage 2 in the works for late in the year, but Sony steals the show with their new PSP online services and software announcements. Nintendo doesn't disappoint with a Zelda announcement for DS but in general seems unable to muster great support for the DS and it's momentum seems broken.
As E3 leads to Summer and Summer to Christmas the rise of Sony becomes even more pronounced. By the year's end Sony's PSP has driven through to 11 million sales far surpassing Nintendo's 9 million and absolutely dominating Christmas press and sales numbers worldwide. Sony has done it again and again Nintendo is worse off for Sony's success.
So, which did you choose? To me they all seem plausible, but there's something important that's left out of all those and the reason this was a three part article: portability, believability, and the user experience.
The First Crown of The Evening
It should be pretty damn obvious who wins for portability even if you are oblivious and obsessed with one of these devices. For portability the N-Gage line sits firmly on top. It rules in battery life, physical size, and even in the mobile accessibility of it's online gaming. The silver here goes certainly to the DS. Size wise I'd say the PSP and the DS are a wash but in battery life the DS is much better for the mobile minded. Last place goes to Sony here. While I don't think it's size is out of the range of acceptability for a portable (only slightly larger than a Game Boy Color) that battery life is a cruel joke. What were they thinking? No one would have been upset if the screen was just a little smaller to save on battery life and fix some design issues. Too bad because it's the only major flaw in their design.
Who Do You Trust?
George Thorogood put forth the question "who do you love?" and that is in play here but the bigger question is "who do you believe?" For me I've been using an N-Gage since 2003 and I have no problem with Nokia, but the rest of the world can't say the same. For most they have no reason to believe in Nokia and their efforts. Some of last year's killer apps and those in the pipe for this year look solid but can anyone hear them over the noise of Sony and Nintendo? I say no. As much as I'd like to believe Nokia can get through to gamers this year I think there's too much static right now for anything but a miracle to break the rhetoric. In my mind this means the title for "Most Believable" has to go to Sony or Nintendo. At this point I'm handing it to Nintendo. While Sony has some nice games announced, the current spread is what I call one week boring (all boring within a week) and Nintendo has a wider range available. Their name brands are roughly equal in consumer moving power but the games announced and available favor Nintendo so they are getting the crown for believability from me. Second place I hand to Sony who are no further than one big release away from the lead here but are still behind in a real way.
In Hand Silences The Competition
The final factor of importance to me is the user experience and on this one the N-Gage comes in last place again I'm afraid. While the games are solid, entertaining and plentiful, the availability of them is as sad a joke as the PS2 Toy Story graphics statements Sony famously made before it's launch. Nokia has made headway to some extent in this arena but they still aren't getting shelf space in most outlets and are just not well positioned in comparison to the PSP and DS. The question again becomes Nintendo or Sony and again it's a wash. I am however going to give this one to Nintendo again because the prices of the games and system are much friendlier to the consumer interested in a DS (or that consumer's parents). For the cost of a PSP sans game you can have a DS and one or two games. You could also just pick up the system, continue enjoying some of your older GBA or GBC/GB games and only be out 150 USD to Sony's 250 USD with no content.
Scoring The Crown
As I am not a coward I'm not going to simply hide behind the scores above, but as a point of note I will total them tournament style so you can draw your own conclusions. With a simple 3 points for a 1st, 2 for a 2nd, and 1 for a 3rd the above totals out with Nintendo's DS leading at 8 points and both Sony's PSP and Nokia's N-Gage QD with 5 points each in a tie for second. If you believe the portable market would only support two devices at most then an adjusted scale that gives no points for placing 3rd would have the DS still leading with 8 but Sony in second with 4 and Nokia far behind with a minimal 3 points. As I said I have no intention of hiding behind the observations above so let's make some enemies.
The Crystal Ball Tells All
First, I don't think Nokia's N-Gage line has one thing to worry about here and neither do it's users. While they are at risk of loosing their distribution channels with poor placement in the battle ahead their device is by virtue of it's versatility and cell phone functionality very well insulated from the rise and fall of portable gaming devices within the portable gaming marketplace. While I love both my DS and my PSP it is my QD that I carry each and every day because I need my PDA and my cell almost every time I'm out. Does this mean the N-Gage will take the top spot? Most definitely not but I do think it's response to negative reaction is and will continue to be weaker. I also believe because of this versatility it will continue to sell without needing to cannibalize competing system sales to generate it's own. The only risk for the line and it's supporters is the possible need to adapt the distribution of the system and it's titles to more non-traditional methods in the event of absolute defeat in retail outlets.
Second, while I do believe Nintendo's DS is the best bet for a "winner" in this battle because of its sales lead, software selection, pricing and battery life, Sony is not as far behind as their sales numbers to date might indicate and the battle between the PSP and the DS is game for game fight. If developers really focus they can design software for the PSP that will not burn unnecessary battery power with UMD spin ups and bloated coding that burns CPU cycles. Of course by the same token focused developers could be making great touch/dual screen applications for the DS or awesome software rendering engines for the N-Gage, which I would say as programming challenges are much more approachable. Besides, developers in general are an overworked bunch already pushed way too far by their management's unrealistic goals, so going further in code/software design to carry the PSP's limping battery is just not likely to happen with anything but sequels and engine retrofit releases (i.e. Quake 3 becomes Return To Wolfenstein).
Chris' Closing Thought
So my final words on this are: Nintendo continues it's reign if they can deliver the goods with releases starting now and leading right through to 2006, Sony will revisit the history Game Gear wrote and run a moderately successful second for as long as it is economically feasible for them to do so, and the N-Gage will continue to climb in sales numbers regardless of what happens with the other two big players because a great number of PSP and DS owners are going to need a new cell and there is no better cell out there for a gamer than the N-Gage.
In short, buy an N-Gage to replace your cell, enjoy it and what you have, and DEFINITELY wait a few months to see how software and Christmas pricing pan-out before you burn yourself with early adoption. Much love from me to you and with that I'm out.