For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.
–Hosea 8:7
Welcome to the new year. It is going to suck. 2024 is going to be a grim year. If we accept that up front, we’ll be better prepared to meet things head on.
2024 banner courtesy of our daughter
I mean sure, everything LOOKS good right now. The stock market has hit record highs, gas prices are way down, and the unemployment rate is as low as it has ever been in my lifetime. US troops aren’t fighting on the ground on foreign soil for the first time in decades. Hell, inflation has been tamed to the extent that the Federal Reserve says it will be lowering interest rates. Those are all ingredients for a happy new year.
Except, of course, it is a presidential election year. Those are bad even when both candidates aren’t too old and when one of them didn’t attempt a coup the last time around. And this time the coup guy is promising a dictatorship if he wins. You’d think that would make this election an easy choice… but no. So it is going to be grim campaign, and even if the wannabe dictator loses he won’t go quietly. It will be non-stop whining from him and his followers until he dies.
And that is just our own problem. The rest of the world is still on fire, with Russia in Ukraine, China bullying anybody within IRBM range, and the eternal mess that is Palestine and Israel having flared up into a full armed conflict again.
Always predict the worst and you’ll be hailed as a prophet.
-Tom Lehrer, quoting a friend
That means the need for distraction from a possible national disaster will be stronger than ever. Will it be a good year for video games as we trod the wind swept precipice of doom? The grimness of the prospect of 2024 has put me in a bit of a mood, so I am going to trot out what is probably the most dire set of predictions I have done so far. But they will be video game predictions (mostly), so the stakes are low. There is, of course, a long history of this sort of thing here:
I wrote most of these the day I scored my 2023 predictions and, while I updated a couple due to news that came out later… the whole WoW Roadmap made me shift some dates… others I left “as is” even when contrary news landed because the news isn’t always right and things happen.
Also, I will inject my usual reminder that predictions are not wishes. I don’t WANT bad things to happen, but I live in a world where far too few good things happen. I am a product of my environment.
1 – Microsoft Buyers Remorse
Everything with Microsoft and XBox was rainbows and lollipops at BlizzCon but, having closed the deal, now MSFT is going to need to deal with the reality. And the reality is that they are going to behave like every other large game studio has been and lay a bunch of people off. Microsoft has already severely trimmed some of its other companies, like LinkedIn, so it will be Blizz next. Granted, there was always going to be some redundancy trimmed, but MSFT will got further and will axe a couple hundred people working on active Blizz projects in 2024
2 – Activision Settlement Woes
Activision Blizzard may have settled with the state of California over harassment and discrimination charges, but they still have a laundry list of changes they have promised to make… and they’ll drag their feet on that until the state has to come after them again. California will need to get in there in order to force compliance with the agreed upon terms before the end of 2024.
3 – The War Within Launch Date
I am going to put my money on September 9/10 as the world-wide release date for The War Within, and as I usually do, the accounting for points will be minus two for every week off I am.
4 – The War Within Reception
Fair to middling. Hopes of that the start of this three parter will bestir the fan base and drive people back to retail will… if not fall flat, will be a repeat of Dragonflight. Shadowland killed off retail for too many people and WoW Classic was there to catch them. Retail WoW is a foreign country to many now. It won’t fail or anything, but it will be akin to what we just saw where the launch will generate no “best ever!” press release and they will be giving out free weekends and discounted pricing within a month.
5 – Cataclysm Classic Launch Date
I am going to put my money on July 15/16 as the world-wide release date for Cataclysm Classic and, as above, the accounting for points will be minus two for every week off I am.
6 – Pandamonium
I don’t think Cataclysm Classic will be the disaster some think it will be, but I also don’t think it is going to hold player attention for as long as Wrath Classic managed. Blizz will announce Mists of Pandaria Classic at BlizzCon and the implication will be that Cata Classic will last less than a year all told.
7 – Season of Discovery Rug Pull
Blizz will get to the end of the vanilla content with Season of Discovery and announce that they will be shutting off the servers because it is over. This will annoy players who were invested in the whole thing or who were still holding out hope for Classic Plus. As with Season of Mastery, when Blizzard uses the word “season” they mean “temporary.”
8 – Diablo IV Expansion
We will get the expected content update in Q2 2024, with May 23/24 being the world wide launch date. The usual “off by weeks” rule above applies.
9 – Blizz and the Unnamed Survival Title
It will remain unnamed and unremarked upon in 2024. Nothing to see here.
10 – World of Warcraft Celebrates 20 Years
World of Warcraft will hit its 20 year anniversary in November. As such, I am going to throw out a few bullet points, worth five points each, should they come to pass.
- Physical 20th Anniversary Collector’s Edition
- Digital 20th Anniversary Collector’s Edition
- In-game Achievement for Logging in During the Anniversary
- Mount Gift in Retail WoW
- Pet Gift in WoW Classic
- BlizzCon is dominated by WoW… more that usual
- A New flavor of WoW Classic is announced
That is a possible 35 points in play.
11 – The Year of EverQuest
The Norrath titles, EverQuest and EverQuest II, are turning 25 and 20 respectively in 2024. As such, Daybreak will have some big plans or some such. No doubt the EverQuest II anniversary will be overshadowed by WoW, but it will still be a thing. As above, I am going to throw out some bullet points that are worth five points each should they come to pass.
- Nostalgia themed expansions visiting old locations and old raid bosses for both titles
- Fresh start servers for classic content for both titles
- A special rules server that isn’t just classic content for EverQuest
- A special rules server for EQII that includes a goals/achievements race for prizes
- Special 20th and 25th anniversary items in the physical gear store
- An in-person event for fans at the Daybreak HQ in San Diego
That is a possible 30 points in play.
12 – Daybreak Un-Announcements
Last year we got low key announcements that there were H1Z1 and EverQuest titles in the offing. My guess is that Daybreak is going to walk one of those back, either removing it from their plans entirely or pushing back any previously planned dates by at least two years. And you know what, I am going to demand double points if they do it for both. How do you like them apples?
13 – LOTRO No Closer to 4K Support
Meanwhile, over at the Standing Stone group at Daybreak, they are going to potter merrily along with content updates and cash shop items and they are not going to do one thing to further the cause of 4K video support for the game. After seven years of “we’ll get to it” I view this as a gimme, a free ten points, and I dare SSG to prove me wrong!
14 – Consoles for Some but not All
In 2024 DC Universe Online will become a native PlayStation 5 application… and PlanetSide 2 will not. Oh, and it goes without saying that the idea of LOTRO on consoles will never be mentioned again by Daybreak/EG7… but I said it anyway! I’ll even give myself NEGATIVE ten points it LOTRO on consoles is mentioned in any way save for announcing it won’t happen. That should offset #12.
15 – EVE Online Expansion Dreams
CCP, having tasted success from three Faction Warfare expansions in a row will roll the dice on that again for its mid-year expansion, but that will fail to keep the proverbial summer slump from hitting the way Viridian prevented it.
16 – EVE Vanguard Launch Date
I don’t know when it will officially be live, but it won’t be in 2024. There will be more live tests and some form of early access, but it will still be in the gray zone between testing and a live launch come the end of the year. I am going to give myself half credit it it does fully launch in 2024, but not until November and eight points if it lands in December.
17 – EVE Galaxy Conquest’s Fate
The new mobile title announced at Fanfest, EVE Galaxy Conquest, will launch then fade so fast in the sea of mobile titles out there that the promise of a PC version will never come to pass. That will be a shame, because EVE Online has an older demographic that would really dig into a strategic, 4x PC title set in New Eden. Half credit if it doesn’t launch at all in 2024.
18 – EVE War for New Eden
The EVE Online board game. I feel this was announced prematurely. There was no benefit from breaking that news before Fanfest unless the Kickstarter was ready to go. And given the dearth of information available so far, I am going to predict that the Kickstarter won’t go live before June 1st and if you pledge to get a copy it won’t arrive in time for Christmas.
19 – Project Awakening
It won’t ship in 2024, but we will get a preview and it will be a weakly revamped version of EVE Online that puts all in game items on the blockchain and will feature a new currency that a16z will own. The only people who will be excited by this are people invested in blockchain because this will be entirely about that technology and not at all about game play. (Which is the perennial fault of all of these crypto projects. Also, play to earn is a garbage idea and will never succeed in the long term, being a completely untenable economic idea.)
20 – Camelot Unhinged
It is always an easy one, predicting that Camelot Unchained won’t ship. It has been good for almost a decade. (Beta 1 access, promised for February 2015, still not a thing.) So let’s dial that up a notch. Not only will it not ship in 2024, it also won’t be available for any sort of general access beta for backers (staged, one weekend, events don’t count), and Marc Jacobs is going to announce a THIRD title his team is working on.
21 – Starved Citizen
Chris Roberts will stumble this year, announcing something that will end up being a step too far for all but his most die hard adherents. Second and third quarter revenues will fall short by year over year measures. But then he’ll announce some crazy new feature at CitizenCon… zero G sex or a psychedelic asteroid mining colony option or maybe actual in game psychedelics… and things will recover in the fourth quarter. Depending heavily on The Nosy Gamer to keep me honest on this one with his reporting.
22 – Pantheon Something Something Something
Visionary Realms will make a huge mistake and ship something this year. I say “mistake” because they have managed to survive on selling vision… hey, it is literally in their name… but when the rubber finally hits the road… oh my. It might only be early access to Pantheon, but it will be generally available and the reaction will be muted and panic will set in at the company as they find out that nostalgia has problems interacting with reality.
23 – Random Shot at Ubisoft
Just because I’ve set some personal record for grudges against a company when it comes to Ubisoft… a record achieved largely by them renewing my ire pretty much annually. So Ubisoft will do something in 2024 that will enrage players/fans/gamers or whoever and I will renew my vow to never buy another game from them again. Also, water will be wet and the sun will continue to rise in the east.
24 – Metaversary Stories
In the smoking remains of the metaverse hype of 2022, here is how the few remaining contenders will fare in 2024. Each bullet point is worth 5 points.
- Meta Horizon Worlds will shut down
- Decentraland will shut down
- Playable Worlds will not deliver any tangible content for end users
- VentureBeat will continue to act like the metaverse is still a thing to be achieved
- There will continue to be no coherent definition of “metaverse” that isn’t so general that you could claim the internet already is the metaverse. (I expect this to be a gimme, but we’ll see)
25 points total in play here.
25 – Virtual Banality
Virtual Reality will remain a niche market, giving lie to all those optimistic growth charts of the last dozen years, with sales of VR hardware actually declining in 2024.
26 – Pokemon Go to the Moon!
Pokemon Go will release an update that will increase the level cap to 60, with the experience point gap between 59 and 60 being ONE BILLION. This will be the classic blunder of hurting all the normies… I friend online so many casual players on community days that are mid-30s to low-40s… because a tiny percentage of the player base hit 50 too quickly.
27 – Destination Steam
The following Blizzard titles will end up on Steam in 2024. Five points per correct guess.
- Diablo II Resurrected
- Diablo Immortal
- StarCraft
- StarCraft II
- World of Warcraft
25 points in play here.
28 – Destination XBox
The following Blizzard titles will end up in the XBox PC store… not necessarily on Game Pass, but available for purchase or subscription through Microsoft’s XBox store front for your PC.
- World of Warcraft
- Diablo IV
- Diablo Immortal
- Diablo II Resurrected
- StarCraft
- StarCraft II
30 points in play here.
29 – Pax Dei
Pax Dei will end up reneging on their “no NPCs” plan once they get into early access… so I guess part of this prediction is that they will get to early access this year… because somebody will recall how hard CCP had to work to bootstrap a player economy into existence even with NPCs as part of their plan. Their player run sandbox idea will shamble along until they do this.
30 – Tarislandia
While some members of the gaming press have been falling all over themselves to dismiss Tarisland a WoW clone, even idiotically suggesting it somehow sprang fully formed into existence when WoW lost its partner in China… those diabolical Chinese planned it this way all along… when it finally ships this year… there is part of the prediction… people will change their tune and will declare it is more of a Lost Ark clone… or anything besides being the cheap copy of WoW that it was so aggressively painted as in the press.
31 – Just Won’t Ship
As the heading says, these titles won’t ship in 2024. For purposes of this prediction, remaining in alpha or beta means the ship metric was not met, but I am going to say that paid early access counts as shipping, because screw anybody who tries to take money AND deflect issues. This is five points per bullet point.
- ArcheAge II
- Bitcraft
- Blue Protocol
- Chrono Odyssey
- Dune: Awakening
- Eternal Tombs
- Havenworld
- Path of Exile II
- Reign of Giulds
- Squadron 42
- Soulframe
I really dug into the news of expected releases fill out that list, and would be happy to be wrong… but you know I’m going to be mostly right here. I mean, half of these are barely a gleam in the milkman’s eye at this point. Also, I put Squadron 42 in there because there is no way that will ship before 2028… if ever. Feature complete my ass.
Anyway, a big 55 points at stake here.
Bonus Predictions
These are the crazy fringe guesses that have no basis in reality, but I get 10 additional points if one of them actually comes to pass.
- Richard “Lord British” Garriott will announce that his blockchain shambles of a project will be driven by AI, because that buzzword is still active and must remain active until he jumps on the bandwagon, which is always the sign that the gold rush is over and we need to move on.
- That third title that City State Entertainment announces in 2024 will be blockchain driven because Mark Jacobs will have been offered a wad of money, the way CCP has, to make a title using the technology. It will be the final sell out and he will never ship another game in his lifetime.
- Peter Molyneux’s Project MOAT will be announced as a blockchain, AI driven, multiverse vision… if it isn’t all that already. I cannot be bothered to check. I have just seen a few headlines, which is more than it deserves. This almost seems like a gimme at this point in his career. I am hoping Conner at MMO Fallout will keep me honest here.
- Somebody will notice that CCP’s promise that its skill point packs are “once per account” is meaningless when they just change up the packs every month or so, meaning that there is effectively no limit over time. I will deduct zero points if I am the source of this discovery. I am allowed to set fires too!
- I feel like I could do a whole Twitter predictions post, but I am going to just predict that Elon is going to loudly threaten bankruptcy by the end of 2024 to keep creditors at bay. Muskovites have been smug about him having those foolish enough to finance the deal by the balls following the old saw about “Borrow a thousand dollars and the bank owns, borrow a billion dollars and you own the bank,” but Musk put up Tesla stock as collateral and if he isn’t making his payments they can declare default and take the stock. Musk won’t like that, and bankruptcy won’t stop it in the long term, but the mention of bankruptcy will introduce delay and chaos, which is all he’ll want out of it. He won’t actually declare bankruptcy since he is convinced that would make his penis shrink further.
Come the Accounting
Those are my predictions for 2024. That is a possible total 450 points, plus a potential 50 bonus points for wild ass guesses, for a grand total of 550 points should I be correct on everything… which I almost certainly will not be. (Somebody check my math, I did that all in my head and… well.. you’ve got some insight into what is going on in there if you’re read this far.)
Once again I must say, as I always do, that predictions are not wishes. These are things I think could happen, not necessarily things I would want to happen. This is more to stimulate ideas in my head than anything else. But if you’re still mad I said something, go ahead at let me have it. I remain staunch in my statement that being proven wrong on these is no sin.
As for measurements, I usually start off trying to write “SMART” predictions (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound), but then I get half way into the list and I start writing vague, subjective, or difficult to measure items that cause me problems at the end of the year.
I mean, I don’t even know what UbiSoft could do to piss me off, but I suspect they will do something. But can I prove it pissed me off in some objective way? No, you’ll just have to trust me.
I do try to grade myself in a fairly strict manner. I think my history shows that I don’t try to go the old Gevlon route of twisting every prediction to find some loophole in order to claim I was actually 100% correct. I am old and have long since found peace (and humor) in being wrong.
Everything, however, is time bound. If it doesn’t happen by December 15th I was wrong and get no points.
So we’ll see how this all turns out on December 15th. The week before that I’ll probably be scrambling to find out if, for example, any of those titles shipped.
Meanwhile, others out there predicting: